2016 Polls Show Support for Clinton Softening as Election Day Neared

According to polling data by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, Hillary Clinton won the Puerto Rican vote in Florida by greater than a 3:1 margin, earning 62% of the vote relative to President Trump’s 20%.  (In the post-election poll, 12% of respondents refused to answer and 5% chose “other.”)

Yet despite her popularity among the Florida Puerto Rican community, Clinton’s margin of support among registered Republicans and Independents shifted significantly in the final six months of the campaign.  Some Republicans tilted back towards partisan tendencies, and among self-identified Independents, Hillary Clinton’s popularity also decreased.

There are also indications in the Florida Puerto Rican community of a late break towards Trump.  Although Clinton won the Puerto Rican vote by a strong margin, people who made their vote choice in the final month of the campaign voted for Clinton by a margin net -13 points less than those who made their minds up well in advance.

Support for Puerto Rican statehood was strong.  In every question type asked in the May and November polls, statehood status is the preference of the Florida Puerto Rico diaspora across the political spectrum.  Supporting statehood is also a popular political position for officeholders and candidates as a majority of voters tend to support pro-statehood candidates.

See full results of May 2016 poll

See analysis of May 2016 poll

See full results of November 2016 poll

See analysis of November 2016 poll

 

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