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New Poll Shows Momentum For Fortuno and Statehood: Both Lead By More Than 5%

new poll shows that incumbent Governor Luis Fortuno has taken the lead in the gubinatorial race with 47.2% of the vote.  Challenger and Popular Democratic Party (PDP) member Garcia Padilla followed in second place with 41.5%, Independence candidate Commissioner Juan Dalmau Ramírez had 4% of the vote, and the three remaining candidates received 7.3%. The poll was conducted from October 19, 2012 to October 22, 2012.

With respect to the upcoming plebiscite vote, statehood was in the lead with 47.9%, Sovereign Free Associated State ELA was second with 40.9%, and independence had 5.7% of the vote.  (There was no report on polling for the first question on the plebiscite ballot, which asks voters if Puerto Rico should continue to have its present form of territorial status.)

The same poll in September had Governor Fortuno with 44.5% of the vote, Garcia with 39%, Dalmau at 5.4%, and three remaining candidates with a collective total of 11.1%.     In July, poll results showed Fortuno with 33% of voters’ support, Garcia with 37.3%, Dalmau with 4.8%, and the others totaling 24.7%

In the October poll, 53% of those asked expected that Governor Fortuno would win again, 39% thought Garcia would become the new governor, and 1% thought others would win.  This result marks a change from the September poll, in which 43.2% thought Fortuno would win, 44.8% said Garcia would become the new governor, and 10.4% predicted that another candidate would win.  In July, 48.6% predicted Fortuno would keep his job, 50.2 expected Garcia to take over, and 1.8% said one of the other candidates would become governor.

Approval and disapproval ratings for the two leading candidates were 47.9% approval versus 47.8% disapproval  for Governor Fortuno, and 37.8% approval to 51.8% disapproval for Garcia . In the September poll, Fortuno’s approval rating was only at 41.2% and his disapproval rating was at 54.4%. Garcia’s approval level was at 38.6% and his disapproval level was 45.7%.  In July, Fortuno’s approval/disapproval ratio was 38.3% to 57.3%, and Garcia’s approval/disapproval ratio was  47.8% to 43.5%.

When asked whether Puerto Rico is “on the right track,” 40.2% said it was while 55% responded that it is on the wrong track.  In the September poll, 30.7% said Puerto Rico is on the right track and 64.9% responded that Puerto Rico is on the wrong track.  In July, the response was a lopsided 19.3%  for Puerto Rico being on the right track versus 74% on the wrong track.

Asked if their lives were better, the same, or worse than four years ago, 22% said better, 39.7% said the same, and 38.3% said their lives were worse.  In September, the breakdown was 14.8% better, 39.4% the same, and 44.6% worse.  in July, the results were 10.4% better, 41.3% the same, and 47.2% worse.

When asked about Puerto Rico’s biggest problem, 44.8% said it is crime, 24.8% responded unemployment, and 7.8% answered lack of economic development.  In September, those were the top three concerns as well with 40.6%, 22.3%, and 13.4% respectively.

The political party affiliation of those polled was 49.4% for PNP, 41.% for PDP, and 6.5% for others.  This breakdown is consistent with the September poll, in which 48.4% were affiliated with the PNP, 40.1% with the PDP, and 5% with others, and the July poll, in which 41.5% identified with the PNP, 40.7% with the PDP, and 5.6% with others.

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