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66% in Poll Would Not Vote for “Commonwealth” Party Gov. Garcia

Midway through his term, Puerto Rico Governor Garcia Padilla badly trails his two potential statehood party opponents, according to a poll out today that has had a good track record in past elections. In head to head match-ups —
* Ricky Rossello, son of a former governor, would get 43% of the vote, Garcia Padilla 24%, the Independence Party’s Juan Dalmau 6%, and candidates of other parties 5%.
* Resident Commissioner Pierluisi would get 37%, Garcia Padilla 23%, Dalmau 6%, and other candidates 11%.

66% of voters said that there is no possibility that they would vote to re-elect the “commonwealth” party Governor, compared with 16% who said they would vote for him, 6% who said they would probably vote for him, and 7% who said that they would possibly vote for him. Within his own party, 26% of those polled said that there was no possibility that they would vote for Garcia Padilla.

The only “commonwealth” party figure of five who did much better was Garcia’s hand-picked Secretary of State, David Bernier, who has never held elective office. 46% said there is no possibility that they would vote for him, 23% said that they would vote for him, 14% said that they probably would vote for him, and 10% said they possibly would.

The percentages of voters who said that there is no possibility of voting for Rossello and Pierluisi were 39% and 41%, respectively. Within the statehood party, the percentages were 8% and 16%.

The professional survey of 1,000 voters was conducted Oct. 20-25. It has a 3% margin of error, and is conducted semi-annually for newspaper El Nuevo Dia.

Among those who voted for Garcia Padilla in his .7% victory in 2012, 54% said that they would vote to re-elect him if Rossello is his opponent, 17% said that they would vote for Rossello, 5% said that they would vote for Dalmau, and 6% said that they would vote for other party candidates.

Among those who voted for Garcia Padilla predecessor Luis Fortuno in 2012, 73% said that they would vote for Rossello, 5% each would vote for Garcia Padilla and other party candidates, and 3% would vote for Dalmau.

Among those who voted for other party candidates including Dalmau in 2012, 41% said that they would vote for Dalmau, 13% would vote for Rossello, and 9% would vote for Garcia Padilla.

Among those who voted for Garcia Padilla in 2012, 53% said that they would vote for him if Pierluisi is his opponent, 16% said that they would vote for Pierluisi, 5% said that they would vote for Dalmau, and 7% said that they would vote for other party candidates.

Among those who voted for Fortuno in 2012, 60% said that they would vote for Pierluisi, 5% would vote for Garcia Padilla, 3% would vote for Dalmau, and 17% would vote for other party candidates.

Among those who voted for other party candidates including Dalmau in 2012, 47% said that they would vote for Dalmau, 13% would vote for Rossello, 3% would vote for other party candidates, and none would vote for Garcia Padilla.

If Garcia Padilla and Rossello were the two major party candidates, Rossello would win 79% of statehood party voters, Garcia Padilla 64% of “commonwealth” party voters, and Dalmau 61% of Independence and other party voters. Rossello would win 27% of voters not affiliated with a political party, Garcia Padilla 9%, Dalmau 6%, and other party candidates 3%.

If Garcia Padilla and Pierluisi were the two major party candidates, Pierluisi would win 62% of statehood party voters, Garcia Padilla 63% of “commonwealth” party voters, and Dalmau 68% of Independence and other party voters. Pierluisi would win 28% of voters not affiliated with a party, Garcia Padilla 8%, Dalmau 6%, and other party candidates 5%.

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